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"Bernie Sanders is currently the most popular Democratic candidate":...
The good polling news keeps on rolling in for Bernie Sanders, who continues to gain ground on Hillary Clinton in both national and state polls.WMUR's new poll of New Hampshire is out. PDF of full...
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Bernie Sanders now behind by only 4 in New Hampshire, EVEN with Elizabeth...
Yesterday, a WMUR poll of New Hampshire was released, which had showed that Bernie Sanders was continuing to gain on Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. That poll found Clinton up by just 6 (42-36), and...
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Is Bernie Sanders qualified to be President? By a 48-30 margin, Americans say...
Same old, same old. Another day, another poll showing Bernie Sanders surging in the polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination.There is a new national Fox phone poll out showing Sanders' support...
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I am typing this with one hand. How Obamacare worked for me, and how it can...
This is me right now:1) How I originally signed up for Obamacare and got excellent health coverage:A little less than two years ago, I signed up for Obamacare on the national exchange. At a time when...
View ArticlePPP: Donald Trump beating Jeb Bush in Head to Head Primary Matchup in NC
PPP's new poll of North Carolina contains some disturbing news.Ever since Donald Trump's nativist xenophobia fueled surge in the GOP primary polls began, it has been widely assumed that he is just a...
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Bernie Sanders' Red State Surge Continues as he Climbs to 34% in Arizona...
Recently, we have started to get an increasing number of polls coming out showing Bernie Sanders' support breaking into the 30s. These include both national polls, like the recent CNN and FOX polls,...
View ArticleThey Yelled "White Power" From the Stands at Donald Trump's Alabama Rally
These are the kinds of people that we are dealing with. This is the kind of political movement Donald Trump is attempting to build. We cannot allow it to succeed.This was not an isolated incident. It...
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NEW VIDEO: "White Power" Flourishes With Trump; "We don't need an election!"...
In a previous blog post about Donald Trump's rally in Mobile, Alabama, I linked to a short Youtube video that showed a member of the crowd yelling out "White Power" while Trump was speaking.What that...
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Sanders gains 4%, Clinton loses 10% in National Monmouth Dem Primary Poll...
A new Democratic primary poll is out from Monmouth University (full PDF results are here). The results for the two major candidates who have actually announced their candidacies (so, not including...
View ArticleIpsos/Reuters Confirms CNN: HRC Down to 30s as Clinton-Sanders Primary...
The new CNN/ORC poll, showing Hillary Clinton's lead over Bernie Sanders down to just 37%-27% (10 points), has understandably attracted a great deal of attention. After all, CNN shows Clinton, who only...
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Clinton 39, Sanders 31: Single Digit Race Nationally as Bernie Sanders Breaks...
Earlier today, I posted about an Ipsos/Reuters poll that had confirmed CNN's national poll which had Bernie Sanders narrowing Hillary Clinton's national lead to 10 points.Apparently, no sooner had I...
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New Poll: Bernie Sanders leads by 7 in New Hampshire (43-36)
A new Monmouth poll is out for New Hampshire (full PDF results are here). At this point, Bernie Sanders has led in enough New Hampshire polls that it is almost not surprising to see yet another poll...
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USA Today: Sanders cuts HRC's lead by 27% Nationally; Separate Poll has HRC...
UPDATE - I also just saw that there is also a new state poll out from TEXAS, of all places, showing Bernie Sanders hot on Hillary Clinton's heels there. In Texas, which is obviuosly a majority minority...
View ArticleBernie Sanders Pulls Ahead in Iowa 47-44 (ARG)
There have been a lot of good polls coming out for Bernie Sanders over the past week. Pollsters stopped polling over the holidays, but now that polling has resumed, it seems clear that Bernie Sanders...
View ArticleIowa & New Hampshire Poll Roundup - Sanders Gaining Big Across Polls
There are another three new polls of Iowa and New Hampshire out today, which confirm the polls we have already seen this week showing Iowa moving into genuine tossup status, while in New Hampshire...
View ArticlePPP: Bernie Sanders is more electable than Clinton in Iowa by an average of 7.2%
There is an interesting finding in PPP’s new Iowa poll, which for some reason PPP chose not to even mention in its write-up. But it is there in the big 142 page PDF, nestled amongst the crosstabs...
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Clinton 48, Sanders 41 Nationally (CBS/NYT): Bernie Surges to Single Digit Race
The unbelievably positive trend in polling — both in Iowa and New Hampshire and nationally — continues for Bernie Sanders.There is a new CBS/NY Times poll out, showing Sanders now trailing Clinton...
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Who Won the GOP Debate in New Hampshire and Iowa? It Wasn't a Republican...
The main goal of Republicans who debated tonight was, presumably, to generate interest in their candidacies. And not just to generate interest — but to generate it in the early states in particular.So,...
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The Democratic debate is blowing the Republican debate out of the water on...
Compare and contrast the search interest that was generated by the Republican debate — held on a normal weekday to maximize exposure — and the Democratic debate, hidden away on a Sunday night.The...
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Poll Meta-Analysis: The Bernie and Hillary 2016 Coalitions, and how they...
In this post, we will undertake a thorough exploratory data analysis of the crosstabs of national Democratic primary polling data, in order to better understand the Demographic characteristics of the...
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Poll Data Analysis: The Current State of the Democratic Primary
This is a continuing part of an ongoing series using polling data, past exit poll data, census data, and other data sources to analyze the 2016 Democratic Primary.Previous posts are:Poll Meta-Analysis:...
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'Twas the weekend before caucuses. What were the Iowans Googling? Bernie...
'Twas the weekend before caucuses, when all through Iowa Many a creature was stirring, especially a canvasser. The doorhangers were hung on the doorknobs with care, In hopes that the residents soon...
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How the delegate math shakes out for Bernie and Hillary down to the...
This is a continuing part of an ongoing series using polling data, past exit poll data, census data, and other data sources to analyze the 2016 Democratic Primary. This is a last pre-Iowa update. I...
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Bernie Sanders is dominating google search interest in Iowa today
In a post yesterday, I noticed that google search interest for Bernie Sanders rose suddenly over the weekend. Since Saturday, Iowans have been searching much more for information about Bernie Sanders...
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Bernie Sanders Did Much Better With Non-Whites In Iowa Than You Think
Markos Moulitsas writes the following in a recent post entitled “The Iowa electorate was overwhelmingly white but among those who weren't, Clinton won handily”:From the Iowa entrance...
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Democratic Primary Model, Feb 8 Update (Pre-NH)
I have been working on making a model to forecast the Democratic primary (see links to previous posts at the bottom).I have now made some further improvements — in particular adding state polls and by...
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Democratic Primary Model, Feb 9 Update (Pre-NH)
This is a daily update to my model projecting the results of the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary. For details and links to previous posts, scroll to the bottom.Click here for a complete projection...
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Bernie Wins Debate 25-9 in Nevada Focus Group
Before the debate, the focus group was split evenly, 17-17:xOur @pbsdebate focus group has 34 undecided voters. When asked who will the debate - 17 say @HillaryClinton , and 17 say @BernieSanders.—...
View ArticleNevada Poll: 45 - 45 Tie; The Bernie Bounce Has Arrived Both in Nevada and...
I am actually going to post 2 polls in this diary. The first is the Nevada poll with a 45-45 tie. The second is a Morning Consult National poll that shows Sanders has surged nationally since late...
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Democratic Primary Polls for All 50 States
I just found a source for Democratic primary polls for all 50 states! There is a national sample size of 39,590, with samples varying between 8,380 for California and 90 for Wyoming. So be more...
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Bernie Surges +12%, Clinton Falls -11% in Reuters LV Tracking Poll; Sanders...
Last week, slinkerwink posted this diary highlighting the Reuters tracking poll. Reuters had shown Bernie Sanders pulling even with Clinton nationally following the Iowa caucuses, much like the...
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CBS/Yougov Poll: Clinton 59% (-1%), Sanders 40% (+2%) in South Carolina
CBS/Yougov has a new poll out from South Carolina. The results are:The last CBS/Yougov poll of South Carolina had Clinton up 60-38, so this represents a slight improvement for Sanders.It has Sanders up...
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Unexpectedly Good South Carolina Poll for Bernie Sanders - up to 41% (Highest...
Gravis Marketing has a new poll just out for South Carolina, with the best ever result from any pollster for Bernie Sanders in a South Carolina poll.Methodological Issues with GravisNow, Gravis is not...
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Sanders Gains Ground (+16%) in another South Carolina Poll (PPP), Cuts...
Bernie Sanders’ positive momentum in South Carolina is confirmed by yet another robo-pollster.Earlier today, Gravis Marketing released a new SC poll in which Sanders had cut Clinton’s lead in South...
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2 Point Race Between Sanders and Clinton in NEW National Quinnipiac Poll (44...
44 Clinton — 42 Sanders.I emphasize NEW because this is the same result that Quinnipiac got in their last national poll (also 44% Clinton to 42% Sanders).The previous poll was widely thought to be an...
View ArticleClinton 52 (-7), Sanders 35 (+9) in new PPP North Carolina Poll
PPP has a new poll out of North Carolina, showing Clinton leading Sanders 52-35. This 17 point lead for Clinton is down substantially from the 33 point lead (59-26) that PPP gave Clinton in North...
View ArticleSanders LEADS Clinton in National Poll For First Time Ever!!! 47-44 (Fox)
In a new national poll from Fox, Bernie Sanders LEADS Hillary Clinton 47% to 44%!!!!!!!This is a live phone poll that calls cell phones (half of the sample).The pollster has a B rating from 538.Percent...
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Nevada Caucuses Preview and Democratic Primary Model Projections
In this diary, we will preview the Democratic caucuses to be held tomorrow in Nevada, overview Nevada's demographics and how delegates are allocated both statewide and across Nevada's congressional...
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Another National Poll has Bernie and Clinton Tied, 43-43
Actually, they technically have Sanders up by .1%. But let's just call it 43-43.McLaughlin Poll2/11 - 2/171/14 - 1/18Sanders42.6% (+14.9%)27.7%Clinton42.5% (-15.3%)57.8%Toplines are here and crosstabs...
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Bernie Sanders leads 53-45 with Latino voters in Nevada Entrance Polls
After the 4th wave of entrance polls from Nevada (sample of 1024 caucusgoers), Sanders leads 53-45 with Latino voters. Hispanics make up 19% of caucusgoers, up from 15% in 2008.Even if that doesn’t...
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Do Nevada precinct results show that Clinton won Latinos? Um, No. Not when...
This diary has extensive and careful analysis. It is a lot to slog through. So a short summary is this:The analyses you have seen that claim that Clinton won the Latino vote in Nevada 60-40 are...
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Sanders leads Clinton 57-29 in West Virginia
If this new poll from West Virginia is even close to correct, it is big news.The survey by REPASS Research has Trump with 40 percent compared with 20 percent for his nearest rival, Texas Senator Ted...
View ArticleGeorgia Poll from Landmark (R) has a Clinton landslide
Congratulations to Hillary supporters on this one —A new poll from Georgia from Landmark has Clinton up 72-20.That is an excellent poll for Clinton, and a terrible one for Sanders. While Georgia was...
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Why is Bernie putting resources into northern, not southern states? Cuz it's...
You may have seen this going around, about ad spending in the Democratic primary:Hillary Clinton and her allies are spending $4.1 million on ads in 11Super Tuesday states, while Bernie Sanders is...
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How Bernie Sanders can win the Democratic nomination
I plan to post a South Carolina primary preview some time later today or tonight, similar to the Nevada primary preview from last time.Hillary Clinton remains the frontrunner for the Democratic...
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South Carolina Democratic primary preview
In this diary, we will preview the South Carolina primary, going though the details of how delegates are allocated by Congressional district, running through the demographics, and considering different...
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SC Democratic Primary analysis and Super Tuesday preview: Dems, not just...
To Clinton supporters, I offer my congratulations on what can only be described as a smashing victory! You can be narrowly happy about the course the Democratic primary is taking. But unfortunately,...
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Can Bernie Sanders still win the Democratic nomination? Here's how he could.
Prior to the South Carolina primary, I explored Bernie Sanders' potential path to victory. The scenarios I examined, along with state polls of South Carolina and the rest of the South, were based on...
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North Carolina Early Vote Turnout Analysis
I was just quickly looking at North Carolina early vote data. I hadn't planned on diarying this, but I thought some other people might be interested, so I am just throwing this together quickly.Here is...
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Map Changing Shock Poll: Sanders steamrolls Trump, Clinton leads Trump in......
Mormons do not like Donald Trump. They do not like him at all.For some of the reasons why, see this article.How much do Mormons dislike Trump?So much so that if Trump is the Republican nominee, Utah...
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